#forecasting

Live Monte-Carlo simulation for price and portfolio forecasting that quants, traders and planners run to model uncertainty — computed on demand and reproducibly, no key, nothing cached. Run a geometric-Brownian-motion simulation of an asset and get the terminal-price distribution (percentiles, mean, probability of a gain); get the modelled chance of reaching a target price; project wealth over many years with periodic contributions (a retirement / savings projection); and return one sample price path for charting. Every run is seeded, so the same inputs always give the same numbers. A forward-looking simulation engine, distinct from historical-statistics and option-pricing tools — it turns a drift and volatility into a distribution of outcomes.

api.oanor.com/montecarlo-api

Live prediction-market and forecaster data from Manifold, the largest play-money prediction market and forecasting community, via its public API. On Manifold anyone can create a market and everyone trades with mana, the platform's play-money, so each market's price is a crowd-sourced probability and every trader has a track record. Search markets and get each one's question, current probability, mana volume, unique-bettor count, liquidity and creator. Read one market in full, with its description and close time. See the top holders of a market — who is forecasting which way and how much mana they have invested. Read a forecaster's profile: their mana balance, all-time profit and how many markets they have created. Live, no key, nothing stored. Distinct from real-money prediction-market and sports-odds APIs — this is Manifold's community markets, their crowd probabilities and their forecasters. Perfect for forecasting, trading-signal, research and community apps.

api.oanor.com/manifold-api

Live prediction-market data from Polymarket, the largest real-money prediction market, via its public Gamma API. On Polymarket people trade shares in the outcome of real-world events, so each market's price is a live, money-backed probability. Get the most active markets, each with its outcomes and their implied probabilities, the best bid and ask, the traded volume and the liquidity. Read one market in full, including its description and resolution date. Pull the biggest events — an event groups related markets, like a championship with one market per team — with their total volume and market count. Get one event with every sub-market and its current probability, the whole field at a glance. Live, no key, nothing stored. Distinct from sports-betting-odds and price-feed APIs — this is Polymarket's money-backed event probabilities and its markets. Perfect for forecasting, trading-signal, news and analytics apps.

api.oanor.com/polymarket-api

Earned Value Management (EVM) maths as an API, computed locally and deterministically — the project cost-and-schedule controls used in PMP, PRINCE2 and government contracting. The metrics endpoint takes the budget at completion (BAC), planned value (PV), earned value (EV) and actual cost (AC) — or a percent-complete and planned-percent of BAC — and returns the cost variance (CV = EV−AC), schedule variance (SV = EV−PV), the cost and schedule performance indices (CPI = EV/AC, SPI = EV/PV), the percent complete and spent, and a plain-language over/under-budget and ahead/behind-schedule read. The forecast endpoint projects the finish: the estimate at completion by three standard methods (BAC/CPI when the cost trend continues, AC + remaining budget, and the cost-and-schedule AC + (BAC−EV)/(CPI·SPI)), the estimate to complete (ETC), the variance at completion (VAC) and the to-complete performance index (TCPI) to land on either the original budget or the EAC. A CPI of 0.875 on a 1000 budget forecasts a 1143 overrun. Everything is computed locally and deterministically, so it is instant and private. Ideal for project-management, PMO, construction, aerospace and contracting app developers, project dashboards and earned-value reporting tools, and PMP/PRINCE2 training. Pure local computation — no key, no third-party service, instant. Live, nothing stored. 2 compute endpoints. This is earned-value project control; for loan or NPV cash-flow maths use a finance API.

api.oanor.com/earnedvalue-api